Jammu/Srinagar: Omar Abdullah, currently the vice president of National Conference, had three terms in Lok Sabha, all one after the other from Srinagar constituency, before becoming Jammu and Kashmir’s youngest Chief Minister in January 2009.
In the erstwhile state’s most curiously watched election ever, Omar has decided to move north and run for the Baramulla constituency. Firebrand Shia leader Agha Ruhullah has been fielded on the Srinagar seat. This has left many surprised as no member of the Abdullah family has ever contested a Parliament election from the north Kashmir even as Omar’s uncle Sheikh Mustafa Kamal has won Assembly elections from Gulmarg in Baramulla district.
In an interview on Sunday, Omar said it was not his habit to take the easy road. He was, however, quick to admit the challenge and say “the political wisdom would suggest that I fight from Srinagar because God forbid a setback for me would be a setback for the entire party. But this is not the first time that someone from the family has fought from a seat other than Srinagar”.
It is here that Abdullah recalled his grandmother Akbar Jehan winning from the Anantnag constituency in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls. “Why should I shy away from a fight”, he asked.
Of the 13 Lok Sabha polls since the first direct parliamentary election in Jammu and Kashmir in 1967, the Srinagar constituency has returned a member of the Abdullah family seven times. Even as Dr Farooq Abdullah lost the 2014 election to Tariq Hameed Qarra of the Peoples Democratic Party, the National Conference is believed to have significant hold on the Srinagar constituency.
With this formidable background, Omar’s decision to pick up a relatively tough fight is reminiscent of the 1984 election when National Conference fielded Begum Akbar Jahan from Anantnag constituency instead of Srinagar which was earlier won by her in 1977 and Farooq Abdullah in 1980.
What was the 1984 election?
In winter of 1984 when the country went to general elections to Lok Sabha in the aftermath of assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, in Jammu and Kashmir it was a referendum on the events of the summer that year -the toppling of National Conference government of Dr Farooq Abdullah under a plan conceived by the Congress in New Delhi and executed by their men in Kashmir.
A year after the death of his father Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, Farooq had returned to power with a landslide victory in October 1983 elections. The Congress had insisted on a pre-poll alliance, an offer Farooq skirted with contempt. This and several other factors made Congress to nurse grudge against Farooq and plans were soon put in motion to have his government toppled.
In culmination of internal bickering and external conspiracies over months, thirteen members defected from the National Conference in the summer of 1984 thus reducing Farooq Abdullah government to minority. They were swiftly joined in by 26 MLAs of the Congress to accomplish toppling of Farooq Abdullah government and installation of his brother-in-law Gul Shah as new Chief Minister on July 2, 1984.
According to multiple records and contemporary political observers, this entire process of toppling Farooq Abdullah government and getting Gul Shah led faction to power was personally overseen by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Shah enjoyed patronage of Indira Gandhi and her key aides on Kashmir. They had the initial commitment to guard his government against any counter plot from Farooq Abdullah.
However, political dynamics changed following the assassination of Indira Gandhi on October 31, 1984, leaving Shah government vulnerable barely four months after its installation. Indira’s son and successor Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who would later get sympathetic to Farooq, ordered elections later same year which earned him a landslide of solidarity vote across the country but the situation in Kashmir was different.
Farooq Abdullah used the December 1984 election as a referendum to his popularity and sought vote against the Congress actions. In these elections, the National Conference made a clean sweep across three seats of Kashmir valley even as both Jammu seats were won by the Congress.
The National Conference saw Srinagar and Baramulla seats as a cakewalk but was a little less confident on the south Kashmir seat of Anantnag which had a traditionally strong Congress base since the 1960s. Anantnag continued to be a bastion of Congress even after the National Conference had returned to the mainstream politics in 1975.
Mohammad Shafi Qureshi of the Congress had won this seat in 1967, 1971 and 1977 elections while Ghulam Nabi Kochak of the NC secured the seat in 1980. After careful consideration, the party fielded Farooq’s mother Begum Akbar Jahan on Anantnag seat in 1984 elections.
Begum Abdullah faced Peer Hassan Ud Din, kin of former Chief Minister and Congress stalwart Syed Mir Qasim. There were three more candidates in the fray who lost even their security deposits as the contest was direct between the National Conference and Congress in this south Kashmir constituency which saw a voting turnout of 70.08%.
In an intensely contested election, Begum Abdullah defeated Peer Hassan with an impressive margin of 19.90%. Begum polled 240,973 votes against Peer’s 158,963.
Meanwhile, Chief Minister Gul Shah’s son Muzaffar Ahmed Shah was badly trounced at the Srinagar seat by Abdul Rashid Kabli of the National Conference. In Srinagar constituency where the polling percentage soared to 73%, Abdul Rashid Kabli of National Conference trounced Muzaffar Ahmed Shah by massive margin of 63.20%. Kabli polled 367,249 votes against Shah’s 80,972.
Baramulla constituency recorded a voter turnout of 60%. Prof Saif Ud Din Soz of National Conference polled 234,357 votes against 93,938 votes of Mohiuddin Wani, an independent candidate to win seat with a huge margin of 41.75%.
Forty years later
Four decades after the 1984 elections, the challenges before the National Conference are much more serious. Besides the developments of August 2019 which put the regional parties in a hopeless situation, the National Conference has been facing consistent decline since 2002.
Winning the 2024 Lok Sabha election on the three seats it is contesting is crucial for the party to put itself in a position of hope for the upcoming Assembly elections. Howsoever the National Conference may boast confidence, it is tough contest on all three seats.
Asked about the rationale behind leaving the family bastion of Srinagar Lok Sabha seat to contest from Baramulla, Abdullah, who has been elected to Lok Sabha three times, said it was not his habit to take the easy road. Abdullah recalled his grandmother Akbar Jehan winning from the Anantnag constituency in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls.
“I still remember as a child campaigning with my grandmother from Anantnag in 1984 after the murder of democracy when MLAs were bought, defections were engineered and my father’s government was brought down.
“My grandmother fought and won from Anantnag,” he added.
Abdullah said his fight in the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat was not against a particular candidate but against the “might of the central government and the BJP”. “I am not fighting against an individual. My fight in north Kashmir is against the BJP, it is against the support it is giving to people on the ground,” he said.
