The Political Economy of the Kashmir Conflict: Opportunities for Economic Peacebuilding and for U.S. Policy
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- The governments of India and Pakistan have recently indicated a desire to develop warmer relations and to settle the issues that divide them by peaceful means. This endeavor will not succeed, however, unless political violence in Kashmir is substantially reduced.
- A process of dialogue with Kashmiri separatists launched by the previous Indian government seems very likely to continue under the new government installed after the elections of May 2004. Indeed, the leadership of the new government had opened communication with separatist elements before the recent dialogue began.
- The United States could play a crucial role as a facilitator—not as a mediator—paving the way toward toward resolution while leaving the principal stakeholders to determine the form of that resolution. Most Kashmiris regard the United States as an honest broker, an opinion rarely held in Muslim countries in the aftermath of 9/11. For its part, the United States is concerned that Kashmir might spark a nuclear confrontation and would like to see an end to the terrorist activity that Kashmir’s disputed status inspires.
- Washington’s priority in the region should switch from avoiding nuclear confrontation—an unlikely event—to helping to restore a highly functioning, robust democracy in Kashmir. This would be an effective means of countering terrorism in India; it would also help to undercut the rationale for unrest in Kashmir and thereby help to rid Pakistan—now a major non-NATO U.S. ally—of the incubus of religion-based terrorism that has retarded its evolution into a modern nation-state.
- The status of Kashmir has been hotly debated since the partition of British India and has prompted several wars between India and Pakistan, the most recent, the Kargil War, occuring in 1999. Kashmir’s people have suffered immensely from the ongoing conflict between South Asia’s two nuclear powers. Their plight finally garnered international attention in the closing decades of the past century, but only because, faced with a stagnant economy and a corrupt government, they had revolted.
- Kashmir has rich natural resources and a talented and entrepreneurial people, but its economic development has been hobbled by misguided economic policies, corruption, a lack of cooperation between India and Pakistan, and political turmoil.
- The political upheaval of recent years has exacted a heavy toll on the state’s economy, and the richest source of income has become the threat and use of violence. Mired in poverty, young people are easily recruited into predatory terrorist and paramilitary organizations, some of which are financed and trained by Pakistan’s security services, some of which enjoy the protection of Indian authorities.
- If Kashmiris are to feel less alienated, govern∂ments in the Indian and Pakistani parts of the state of Jammu and Kashmir must grant their people freedom, not merely by granting elections but also by rolling back restrictions on business, terminating governmental monopolies in trade and commerce, and encouraging international investment by bodies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Key areas for investment are watershed development, the timber industry, fruit processing, and power generation.
- The United States can offer various forms of assistance to Kashmir; it could, for instance, supply U.S. expertise and resources to help Kashmiris suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder. U.S. incentives to encourage India and Pakistan to settle their differences peacefully can likewise take various forms, from helping Pakistan modernize its armed forces to securing foreign investment for the economic revitalization of Jammu and Kashmir.